PUBLIC MARKS from ogrisel with tags forcasting & "time series"

Don Quixote is a new business software that uses artificial intelligence and powerful statistical methodology to achieve high forecasting accuracy. No matter if you forecast market shares, sales, profits, demand for services or material, Don Quixote will make your work faster, easier and more accurate and will improve your understanding of the nature of time series.

Stock return predictability has been a subject of great controversy. The debate followed issues from market efficiency to the number of factors containing information on future stock returns. The analytical tool of support vector regression on the other hand, has gained great momentum in its ability to predict time series in various applications and also in finance (Smola and Schölkopf, 1998). The construction of a prediction model requires factors that are believed to have some intrinsic explanatory power. These explanatory factors fall largely into two categories: fundamental and technical. Fundamental factors include for example macroeconimical indicators, which however, are usually only unfrequently published. Technical factors are based solely on the properties of the underlying time series and can therefore be calculated at the same frequency as the time series. Since this study applies support vector regression to high frequent data, only technical factors are considered.